Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.28 – 59.36

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.3 ±18.5

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 7.86Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 35.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 1.74Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100 ±16.8

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -1.31Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX -0.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 61.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2348, 2445, 6191

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2348, 2445, 6191

Auto

12.5 28%

Teleop

16.5 37%

Endgame

15.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2477, 9715, 2853

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2477, 9715, 2853

Auto

-1.2 0%

Teleop

21.5 41%

Endgame

31.9 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.3pts

Blue projected score59.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 24–80
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.3Season APEX100

12.5Auto-1.2

16.5Teleop21.5

15.1Endgame31.9

85Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	46	46
endgame	14	15
foul	0	5
total	77	75

Result

Final score

77 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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