Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.31 – 142.04

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.8 ±12.3

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 20.99Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 37.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 170.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288 ±14.1

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 31.9Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 31Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 79.14Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11229, 2443, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11229, 2443, 359

Auto

50.1 23%

Teleop

107.5 49%

Endgame

63.3 29%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2465, 11177, 3882

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2465, 11177, 3882

Auto

31.6 22%

Teleop

72.8 51%

Endgame

38.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.3
Score range: 122–249
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.8Season APEX288

50.1Auto31.6

107.5Teleop72.8

63.3Endgame38.6

54Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	32
teleop	141	82
endgame	78	8
foul	0	0
total	258	122

Result

Final score

258 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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