Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.35 – 111.69

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.7 ±16.4

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 9.97Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 37.82Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 31.56Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±13.2

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 65.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 16.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 29.48Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8585, 3008, 2896

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8585, 3008, 2896

Auto

14.9 18%

Teleop

51.9 62%

Endgame

16.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4270, 3880, 3721

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 3880, 3721

Auto

21.0 19%

Teleop

60.7 54%

Endgame

30.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.4pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.3
Score range: 59–132
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 113.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.7Season APEX394.3

14.9Auto21

51.9Teleop60.7

16.4Endgame30

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	23	24
endgame	6	8
foul	0	5
total	45	51

Result

Final score

45 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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