Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.76 – 100.89

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±16.9

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 24.04Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 46.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 29.92Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.6 ±15.4

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -7.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 111.26Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX -2.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6704, 3881, 9019

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6704, 3881, 9019

Auto

29.9 32%

Teleop

40.7 43%

Endgame

23.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9012, 11019, 2441

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9012, 11019, 2441

Auto

17.7 18%

Teleop

51.2 51%

Endgame

31.2 31%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.8pts

Blue projected score100.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 81–121
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.5Season APEX203.6

29.9Auto17.7

40.7Teleop51.2

23.4Endgame31.2

62Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	7
teleop	32	90
endgame	10	40
foul	0	0
total	59	137

Result

Final score

59 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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