Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
234.94 – 117.53
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
232 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.8 ±12.8
Season APEX 90Event APEX 35.09Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 33.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82
Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 166.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±16.4
Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 88.32Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 8.09Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 21.12Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2465, 2896, 359
83
/ 100 compatProjected
234.9 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 2465, 2896, 359
Auto
54.5 23%
Teleop
115.0 49%
Endgame
66.2 28%
Strengths
- · 359 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 3882, 2348, 11229
69
/ 100 compatProjected
117.5 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3882, 2348, 11229
Auto
22.9 19%
Teleop
67.4 57%
Endgame
28.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.71
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score234.9pts
Blue projected score117.5pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 117.4
- Score range
- 98–255
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
383.8Season APEX222
54.5Auto22.9
115Teleop67.4
66.2Endgame28.4
0Consistency100
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 31 |
| teleop | 117 | 27 |
| endgame | 53 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 232 | 75 |
Result
Final score
232 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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