Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.75 – 21.33

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

52 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±13.2

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 23.47Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 61.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -2.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 66.8 ±18.5

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -0.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 21.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 0.63Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2465, 4270, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2465, 4270, 9012

Auto

20.3 26%

Teleop

50.5 64%

Endgame

8.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8569, 9019, 2348

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8569, 9019, 2348

Auto

8.0 54%

Teleop

5.4 36%

Endgame

1.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.8pts

Blue projected score21.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.4
Score range: -2–106
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.1Season APEX66.8

20.3Auto8

50.5Teleop5.4

8.6Endgame1.5

36Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	21	6
endgame	17	3
foul	0	0
total	52	18

Result

Final score

52 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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