Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.2 – 154.41

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 87.7 ±17.4

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -23.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 10Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 17.62Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±15.4

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 39.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -0.31Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 115.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8871, 3721, 9019

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 3721, 9019

Auto

17.9 100%

Teleop

-11.5 0%

Endgame

-4.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3881, 2477, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3881, 2477, 11019

Auto

23.2 16%

Teleop

75.1 53%

Endgame

44.3 31%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score4.2pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.2
Score range: -16–174
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 112.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

87.7Season APEX275.2

17.9Auto23.2

-11.5Teleop75.1

-4.7Endgame44.3

0Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	48	67
endgame	22	67
foul	0	0
total	90	147

Result

Final score

90 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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