Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.51 – 61.23

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±14.1

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 23.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX 6.73Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 70.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.2 ±13.9

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 35.34Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 1.14Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 24.75Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3880, 9012, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 9012, 2438

Auto

14.4 15%

Teleop

58.8 62%

Endgame

21.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3008, 9715, 6704

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 9715, 6704

Auto

15.9 27%

Teleop

31.9 54%

Endgame

10.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.5pts

Blue projected score61.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.3
Score range: 40–122
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.7Season APEX202.2

14.4Auto15.9

58.8Teleop31.9

21.8Endgame10.9

52Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	23	14
endgame	5	15
foul	0	0
total	45	46

Result

Final score

45 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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