Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.48 – 174.78

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 85.2 ±18.5

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 33.95Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 18.87Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 32.66Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.3 ±15.4

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 3.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 105.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 65.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7724, 8585, 11177

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7724, 8585, 11177

Auto

15.6 18%

Teleop

44.7 51%

Endgame

27.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2441, 6497, 2853

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2441, 6497, 2853

Auto

23.3 14%

Teleop

99.5 59%

Endgame

46.2 27%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score174.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.3
Score range: 64–196
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

85.2Season APEX279.3

15.6Auto23.3

44.7Teleop99.5

27.5Endgame46.2

34Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	20
teleop	10	67
endgame	18	46
foul	0	5
total	37	138

Result

Final score

37 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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