Qualification · Qualification 25
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
97.29 – 40.99
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
85 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±15
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 40.38Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 70.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -13.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 74.8 ±17.9
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -4.13Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 30.13Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82
Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 14.99Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3881, 8005, 8569
49
/ 100 compatProjected
97.3 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3881, 8005, 8569
Auto
28.9 34%
Teleop
19.8 23%
Endgame
36.6 43%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2477, 2896, 2348
18
/ 100 compatProjected
41 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 2477, 2896, 2348
Auto
-11.0 0%
Teleop
25.6 64%
Endgame
25.2 63%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score97.3pts
Blue projected score41pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56.3
- Score range
- 20–118
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
296.7Season APEX74.8
28.9Auto-11
19.8Teleop25.6
36.6Endgame25.2
116Consistency101
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 5 |
| teleop | 30 | 11 |
| endgame | 20 | 34 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 85 | 50 |
Result
Final score
85 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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