Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.02 – 203.27

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±16.8

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 34.24Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 47.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -16.74Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±13.4

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 20.7Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 174.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 8.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11229, 2445, 8871

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11229, 2445, 8871

Auto

7.6 11%

Teleop

33.8 50%

Endgame

26.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6704, 359, 3721

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6704, 359, 3721

Auto

61.8 30%

Teleop

101.3 49%

Endgame

43.2 21%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score203.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.2
Score range: 44–224
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.3Season APEX396

7.6Auto61.8

33.8Teleop101.3

26.8Endgame43.2

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	51
teleop	22	73
endgame	14	83
foul	0	10
total	48	217

Result

Final score

48 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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