Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.61 – 110.6

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±15.4

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 67.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX 5.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 106.49Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±14.4

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 41.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 42.27Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 26.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2853, 9012, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2853, 9012, 6497

Auto

22.4 14%

Teleop

76.2 46%

Endgame

66.9 40%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2443, 7724, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 7724, 3880

Auto

25.9 25%

Teleop

43.9 43%

Endgame

31.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.6pts

Blue projected score110.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69
Score range: 90–201
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.8Season APEX313

22.4Auto25.9

76.2Teleop43.9

66.9Endgame31.8

49Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	122	21
endgame	22	9
foul	5	0
total	171	64

Result

Final score

171 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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