Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.99 – 53.68

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.7 ±12.4

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 94.38Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 2.69Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 59.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 58.1 ±18.5

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 20.45Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 7.43Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 25.8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3882, 9715, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3882, 9715, 4270

Auto

26.2 16%

Teleop

103.0 64%

Endgame

31.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9019, 2441, 8585

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9019, 2441, 8585

Auto

9.5 17%

Teleop

34.7 63%

Endgame

11.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.3
Score range: 33–178
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.7Season APEX58.1

26.2Auto9.5

103Teleop34.7

31.3Endgame11.2

57Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	74	7
endgame	28	0
foul	0	0
total	121	19

Result

Final score

121 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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