Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.56 – 40.5

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 97.1 ±17.3

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 26.27Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -6.18Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -0.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±15.4

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 25.08Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -10.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 25.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2896, 2477, 3721

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2896, 2477, 3721

Auto

-7.0 0%

Teleop

3.2 20%

Endgame

20.0 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2443, 9012, 3881

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 9012, 3881

Auto

5.9 18%

Teleop

14.5 45%

Endgame

11.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19.6pts

Blue projected score40.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: -2–63
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

97.1Season APEX214.5

-7Auto5.9

3.2Teleop14.5

20Endgame11.6

29Consistency196

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	28
teleop	9	31
endgame	18	26
foul	0	30
total	38	115

Result

Final score

38 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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