Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160 – 165.68

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.1 ±15.3

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 41.43Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 99.36Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 19.21Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.7 ±10.5

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 32.1Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 56.62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 76.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7724, 3882, 6704

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7724, 3882, 6704

Auto

37.4 23%

Teleop

87.3 53%

Endgame

39.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3008, 8005, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 8005, 11019

Auto

39.9 25%

Teleop

85.6 53%

Endgame

36.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160pts

Blue projected score165.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.7
Score range: 139–187
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.1Season APEX509.7

37.4Auto39.9

87.3Teleop85.6

39.7Endgame36.7

10Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	33
teleop	84	135
endgame	40	78
foul	0	0
total	172	246

Result

Final score

172 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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