Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.68 – 92.58

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 143.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±16.4

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 31.56Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 44.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 89.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±13.6

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 11.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -12.04Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 93.1Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6191, 2441, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6191, 2441, 2438

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

88.3 52%

Endgame

54.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2445, 2465, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2445, 2465, 6497

Auto

33.1 37%

Teleop

38.2 43%

Endgame

18.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.1
Score range: 72–187
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.8Season APEX346.6

25.6Auto33.1

88.3Teleop38.2

54.5Endgame18.5

83Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	35
teleop	15	126
endgame	0	78
foul	0	0
total	25	239

Result

Final score

25 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 143.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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