Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.85 – 221.33

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 68.6 ±17.4

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 21.91Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX -11.34Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 21.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±15.4

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 59.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 136.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 25.8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9019, 9715, 11177

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9019, 9715, 11177

Auto

4.3 17%

Teleop

12.0 47%

Endgame

9.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2853, 359, 8585

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2853, 359, 8585

Auto

40.6 19%

Teleop

109.0 51%

Endgame

62.3 29%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.9pts

Blue projected score221.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.5
Score range: 12–241
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

68.6Season APEX352.4

4.3Auto40.6

12Teleop109

9Endgame62.3

42Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	49
teleop	41	165
endgame	19	94
foul	0	0
total	69	308

Result

Final score

69 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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