Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.87 – 111.41

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±14.1

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 109.72Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 48.54Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX 21.61Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±12.7

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 30.7Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 8.17Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 72.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3882, 3008, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3882, 3008, 9012

Auto

25.3 14%

Teleop

109.3 61%

Endgame

44.7 25%

Strengths

· 3882 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2443, 11229, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 11229, 4270

Auto

1.2 1%

Teleop

67.2 62%

Endgame

40.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.9pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.5
Score range: 91–200
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.5Season APEX432.4

25.3Auto1.2

109.3Teleop67.2

44.7Endgame40.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	71	106
endgame	18	36
foul	0	0
total	111	160

Result

Final score

111 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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