Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.93 – 118.91

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.3 ±13.6

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 38.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 100.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -6.96Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±11.7

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 73.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 39.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 5.86Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3880, 6497, 2477

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 6497, 2477

Auto

18.9 14%

Teleop

72.5 53%

Endgame

44.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 6704, 2465

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 6704, 2465

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

56.6 49%

Endgame

45.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.9pts

Blue projected score118.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13
Score range: 98–153
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.3Season APEX394.8

18.9Auto13.3

72.5Teleop56.6

44.2Endgame45.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	40
teleop	22	7
endgame	22	2
foul	15	0
total	68	49

Result

Final score

68 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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