Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.58 – 142.51

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.2 ±14

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 159.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 1.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 32.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.1 ±16

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 68.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 12.58Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 61.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 8569, 8871

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 8569, 8871

Auto

36.0 18%

Teleop

120.9 62%

Endgame

37.7 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11019, 6191, 2853

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 6191, 2853

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

73.0 54%

Endgame

43.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score193.6pts

Blue projected score142.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 122–215
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 114.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.2Season APEX286.1

36Auto19.5

120.9Teleop73

37.7Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	38
teleop	30	80
endgame	35	43
foul	0	5
total	106	166

Result

Final score

106 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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