Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
14.94 – 163.54
14%86%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
54 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 74.8 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 78.3 ±18.5
Season APEX 15.6Event APEX -19.96Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 10.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 24.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.3 ±18.5
Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 58.38Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 68.21Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 36.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2348, 3721, 8585
31
/ 100 compatProjected
14.9 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2348, 3721, 8585
Auto
6.1 36%
Teleop
8.7 51%
Endgame
2.1 12%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9019, 7724, 2445
83
/ 100 compatProjected
163.5 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 9019, 7724, 2445
Auto
31.0 18%
Teleop
97.2 58%
Endgame
39.7 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score14.9pts
Blue projected score163.5pts
Red win probability14%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -148.6
- Score range
- -7–186
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
78.3Season APEX90.3
6.1Auto31
8.7Teleop97.2
2.1Endgame39.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 21 |
| teleop | 30 | 12 |
| endgame | 14 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 54 | 53 |
Result
Final score
54 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 74.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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