Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.55 – 67.5

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 40 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 77.5 ±17.3

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 23.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 44.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 32.11Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±15.2

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 59.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 27.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX -20.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2896, 11177, 2441

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2896, 11177, 2441

Auto

14.0 14%

Teleop

55.5 55%

Endgame

32.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2438, 3881, 9715

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 3881, 9715

Auto

8.2 13%

Teleop

33.5 53%

Endgame

21.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.1
Score range: 46–122
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

77.5Season APEX192.9

14Auto8.2

55.5Teleop33.5

32Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	23
teleop	12	41
endgame	35	26
foul	5	10
total	52	100

Result

Final score

52 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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