Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
75.89 – 0
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
228 – 55
Prediction correct · off by 103.6 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.7 ±12.9
Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 59.06Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -13.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85
Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 30.69Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.5 ±16.4
Season APEX 37.2Event APEX -7.03Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -5.59Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 90Event APEX -5.59Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3882, 8871, 11019
54
/ 100 compatProjected
75.9 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 3882, 8871, 11019
Auto
23.4 30%
Teleop
33.2 42%
Endgame
21.6 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6191, 9012, 2465
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-18.2 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6191, 9012, 2465
Auto
4.9 0%
Teleop
-23.8 100%
Endgame
0.7 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score75.9pts
Blue projected score-18.2pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 75.9
- Score range
- -22–98
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
375.7Season APEX129.5
23.4Auto4.9
33.2Teleop-23.8
21.6Endgame0.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 18 |
| teleop | 139 | 27 |
| endgame | 56 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 228 | 55 |
Result
Final score
228 – 55
Prediction correct · off by 103.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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