Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.65 – 46.48

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.4 ±15.8

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 30.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 59.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 37.35Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±16.9

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 23.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 22.07Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 1.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2445, 2438, 11177

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2445, 2438, 11177

Auto

12.9 10%

Teleop

82.1 65%

Endgame

31.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6704, 6191, 2477

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6704, 6191, 2477

Auto

9.6 20%

Teleop

19.1 40%

Endgame

18.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.7pts

Blue projected score46.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.2
Score range: 23–151
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 128.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.4Season APEX160.7

12.9Auto9.6

82.1Teleop19.1

31Endgame18.8

15Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	0
teleop	84	11
endgame	59	18
foul	0	0
total	157	29

Result

Final score

157 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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