Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.27 – 234.28

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.7 ±11.5

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 182.31Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 9.63Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 129.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±11.9

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 20.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 152.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 60.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 9715, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9715, 11019

Auto

52.9 17%

Teleop

174.6 55%

Endgame

87.5 28%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8871, 6497, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 6497, 4270

Auto

34.2 15%

Teleop

131.4 58%

Endgame

59.6 26%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score321.3pts

Blue projected score234.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87
Score range: 211–344
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.7Season APEX460.2

52.9Auto34.2

174.6Teleop131.4

87.5Endgame59.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	43
teleop	171	105
endgame	32	78
foul	30	35
total	303	261

Result

Final score

303 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

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