Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.66 – 249.99

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.7 ±11.5

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 180.89Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 8.27Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 128.5Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±11.9

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 25.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 158.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 66.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 9715, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9715, 11019

Auto

52.4 17%

Teleop

170.9 55%

Endgame

87.1 28%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8871, 6497, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 6497, 4270

Auto

35.3 15%

Teleop

142.5 59%

Endgame

63.3 26%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score317.7pts

Blue projected score250pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 227–341
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.7Season APEX460.2

52.4Auto35.3

170.9Teleop142.5

87.1Endgame63.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	26
teleop	195	43
endgame	88	30
foul	0	10
total	339	109

Result

Final score

339 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 pts

Match videos

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