Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

646.35 – 619.2

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

666 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 748.8 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 211.66Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 169.88Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 264.81Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 845.7 ±8.7

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 216.28Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 209.35Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 193.57Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 1756, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

646.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 1756, 2468

Auto

127.7 20%

Teleop

339.2 52%

Endgame

179.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1506, 484, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

619.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1506, 484, 449

Auto

118.0 19%

Teleop

325.9 54%

Endgame

162.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score646.3pts

Blue projected score619.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.1
Score range: 544–721
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1232 vs event baseline 418.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

748.8Season APEX845.7

127.7Auto118

339.2Teleop325.9

179.5Endgame162.4

82Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	104
teleop	379	307
endgame	145	155
foul	5	0
total	666	566

Result

Final score

666 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Match videos

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