Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

718.74 – 513.06

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

694 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 62.21Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 336.2Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 320.33Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821 ±13.2

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX -20.31Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 225.63Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 307.74Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

718.7 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

156.5 22%

Teleop

392.5 55%

Endgame

171.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 2231, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

513.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3082, 2231, 1768

Auto

98.4 19%

Teleop

282.7 55%

Endgame

130.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score718.7pts

Blue projected score513.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.7
Score range: 438–794
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1158 vs event baseline 416.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX821

156.5Auto98.4

392.5Teleop282.7

171.1Endgame130

68Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	171	148
teleop	365	187
endgame	153	124
foul	5	5
total	694	464

Result

Final score

694 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Match videos

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