Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

620.18 – 617.11

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

666 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.9 ±9.8

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 244.6Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 176.81Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 198.77Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 835.6 ±9.3

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 190.97Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 188.33Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 237.81Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 10980, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

620.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5913, 10980, 2813

Auto

135.6 22%

Teleop

358.0 59%

Endgame

115.1 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3937, 5895, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

617.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 3937, 5895, 4469

Auto

112.1 18%

Teleop

333.2 54%

Endgame

166.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score620.2pts

Blue projected score617.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 542–695
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1237 vs event baseline 415.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.9Season APEX835.6

135.6Auto112.1

358Teleop333.2

115.1Endgame166.4

79Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	181	114
teleop	360	306
endgame	125	146
foul	0	5
total	666	571

Result

Final score

666 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Match videos

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