Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

562.54 – 655.54

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 254.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 728.8 ±9.8

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 197.88Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 194.46Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 170.2Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 813.5 ±8.1

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 169.94Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 208.15Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 277.45Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1023, 2491, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

562.5 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1023, 2491, 111

Auto

90.4 17%

Teleop

289.1 53%

Endgame

163.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9572, 7415, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

655.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9572, 7415, 9496

Auto

155.5 25%

Teleop

330.7 52%

Endgame

145.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score562.5pts

Blue projected score655.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93
Score range: 488–731
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 415.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

728.8Season APEX813.5

90.4Auto155.5

289.1Teleop330.7

163.3Endgame145.3

99Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	30
teleop	271	135
endgame	56	94
foul	10	0
total	450	259

Result

Final score

450 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 254.5 pts

Match videos

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