Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

621.19 – 620.23

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

609 – 607

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 845.7 ±8.7

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 218.8Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 208.79Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 193.6Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 835.6 ±9.3

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 191.9Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 188.52Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 239.81Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 484, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

621.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1506, 484, 449

Auto

114.8 19%

Teleop

341.0 56%

Endgame

150.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3937, 5895, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

620.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 3937, 5895, 4469

Auto

104.8 17%

Teleop

333.9 54%

Endgame

174.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score621.2pts

Blue projected score620.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1
Score range: 545–696
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1216 vs event baseline 414.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

845.7Season APEX835.6

114.8Auto104.8

341Teleop333.9

150.1Endgame174.6

104Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	136
teleop	278	329
endgame	198	142
foul	5	0
total	609	607

Result

Final score

609 – 607

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 pts

Match videos

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