Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

565.47 – 595.1

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

750 – 785

Prediction correct · off by 187.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.9 ±9.8

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 181.91Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 224.02Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 159.54Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 748.8 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 195.36Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 154.2Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 245.54Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 5913, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2813, 5913, 10980

Auto

123.7 22%

Teleop

338.9 61%

Endgame

92.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 1756, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

595.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 1756, 2468

Auto

121.3 20%

Teleop

321.7 54%

Endgame

154.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score565.5pts

Blue projected score595.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 491–669
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1535 vs event baseline 411.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.9Season APEX748.8

123.7Auto121.3

338.9Teleop321.7

92Endgame154

98Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	165	142
teleop	399	380
endgame	176	258
foul	10	5
total	750	785

Result

Final score

750 – 785

Prediction correct · off by 187.2 pts

Match videos

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