Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

688.87 – 574.15

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

778 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 166.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 310.67Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 320.71Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 57.49Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.4 ±9.8

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 170.5Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 212.47Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 191.18Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1690, 7769, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

688.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1690, 7769, 5181

Auto

155.9 23%

Teleop

359.1 52%

Endgame

177.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6528, 2491, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

574.2 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 6528, 2491, 111

Auto

80.1 14%

Teleop

298.9 53%

Endgame

183.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score688.9pts

Blue projected score574.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: 500–763
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1109 vs event baseline 408.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX749.4

155.9Auto80.1

359.1Teleop298.9

177.1Endgame183.5

94Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	157	84
teleop	468	171
endgame	153	76
foul	0	0
total	778	331

Result

Final score

778 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 166.1 pts

Match videos

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