Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

599.53 – 625.81

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 471

Prediction missed · off by 109.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 845.7 ±8.7

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 211Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 203.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 185.52Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 730.9 ±9.8

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 247.27Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 175.21Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 203.33Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 484, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

599.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1506, 484, 449

Auto

117.0 20%

Teleop

313.2 53%

Endgame

158.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 10980, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

625.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5913, 10980, 2813

Auto

139.6 23%

Teleop

342.8 57%

Endgame

123.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score599.5pts

Blue projected score625.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 524–702
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1007 vs event baseline 421.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

845.7Season APEX730.9

117Auto139.6

313.2Teleop342.8

158.4Endgame123.5

123Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	140
teleop	223	200
endgame	169	126
foul	5	5
total	536	471

Result

Final score

536 – 471

Prediction missed · off by 109.2 pts

Match videos

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