Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

716.21 – 623.5

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

707 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 162.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1020 ±12.2

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 60.26Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 335.46Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 320.49Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.8 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 214.84Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 142.35Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 266.31Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 7769, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

716.2 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 7769, 1690

Auto

160.1 22%

Teleop

388.9 54%

Endgame

167.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 3931, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

623.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 3931, 2468

Auto

118.6 19%

Teleop

324.9 52%

Endgame

179.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score716.2pts

Blue projected score623.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 548–792
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1014 vs event baseline 421.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1020Season APEX750.8

160.1Auto118.6

388.9Teleop324.9

167.4Endgame179.2

66Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	157	74
teleop	397	149
endgame	143	84
foul	10	0
total	707	307

Result

Final score

707 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 162.9 pts

Match videos

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