Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

608.14 – 508.05

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

548 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 845.7 ±8.7

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 212.58Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 205.71Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 189.85Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.4 ±9.8

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 157.82Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 188.89Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 161.34Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 484, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

608.1 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1506, 484, 449

Auto

115.1 19%

Teleop

321.4 54%

Endgame

161.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6528, 2491, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6528, 2491, 111

Auto

84.6 17%

Teleop

272.2 54%

Endgame

143.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score608.1pts

Blue projected score508.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.1
Score range: 432–684
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 990 vs event baseline 420.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

845.7Season APEX749.4

115.1Auto84.6

321.4Teleop272.2

161.4Endgame143

116Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	138
teleop	265	195
endgame	138	104
foul	15	5
total	548	442

Result

Final score

548 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 pts

Match videos

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