Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

374.48 – 453.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

480 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±9.8

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 63.58Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 189.53Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 121.37Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±9.3

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 165.31Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 123.97Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 164.01Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 484, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 364, 484, 16

Auto

53.1 15%

Teleop

209.4 60%

Endgame

89.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2054, 8858, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2054, 8858, 10980

Auto

81.9 18%

Teleop

286.9 63%

Endgame

84.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score374.5pts

Blue projected score453.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.8
Score range: 300–527
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 989 vs event baseline 411.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.8Season APEX688.8

53.1Auto81.9

209.4Teleop286.9

89.4Endgame84.7

73Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	77
teleop	298	281
endgame	71	146
foul	10	5
total	480	509

Result

Final score

480 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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