Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.65 – 344.76

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.4 ±11.9

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 140.67Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 65.53Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 172.45Rank 18Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546 ±10.5

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 2.46Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 137.81Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 204.49Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 10034, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 51, 10034, 8229

Auto

75.7 21%

Teleop

177.5 50%

Endgame

104.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2635, 5653, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2635, 5653, 4322

Auto

58.9 18%

Teleop

186.8 57%

Endgame

80.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score378.7pts

Blue projected score344.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.9
Score range: 271–453
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 412.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.4Season APEX546

75.7Auto58.9

177.5Teleop186.8

104.6Endgame80.3

127Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	74
teleop	166	146
endgame	72	96
foul	25	10
total	338	326

Result

Final score

338 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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