Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.2 – 350.25

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 91 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591 ±9.9

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 227.78Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 81.57Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 51.85Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 787.6 ±12.2

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 291.28Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 67.46Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX -8.49Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7415, 1816, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7415, 1816, 1533

Auto

95.4 28%

Teleop

178.5 52%

Endgame

67.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1690, 6665, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.2 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1690, 6665, 10991

Auto

84.5 24%

Teleop

215.5 62%

Endgame

49.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score361.2pts

Blue projected score350.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 276–435
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 412.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591Season APEX787.6

95.4Auto84.5

178.5Teleop215.5

67.9Endgame49.6

112Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	106
teleop	87	245
endgame	41	69
foul	40	10
total	259	430

Result

Final score

259 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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