Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.2 – 360.64

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

319 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.9 ±11.7

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 174.66Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 24.03Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 65.51Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.4 ±9.8

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 115.76Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 53.21Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 191.67Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 5705, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6528, 5705, 3544

Auto

56.2 22%

Teleop

124.2 49%

Endgame

74.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2556, 4125, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.6 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2556, 4125, 2813

Auto

73.2 21%

Teleop

184.7 53%

Endgame

91.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score360.6pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.4
Score range: 190–435
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 413.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.9Season APEX677.4

56.2Auto73.2

124.2Teleop184.7

74.1Endgame91.3

113Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	98
teleop	175	217
endgame	105	106
foul	0	0
total	319	421

Result

Final score

319 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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