Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

508.94 – 277.21

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 811.7 ±10.7

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 92.92Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 247.11Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 168.91Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 648.8 ±9.9

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 185.3Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 27.58Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 64.33Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 931, 1506, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 931, 1506, 5895

Auto

85.7 18%

Teleop

280.1 58%

Endgame

116.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3501, 614, 7840

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3501, 614, 7840

Auto

34.5 12%

Teleop

184.6 64%

Endgame

68.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score508.9pts

Blue projected score277.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.7
Score range: 202–584
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 730 vs event baseline 414.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

811.7Season APEX648.8

85.7Auto34.5

280.1Teleop184.6

116.8Endgame68.5

68Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	55
teleop	239	161
endgame	81	63
foul	0	15
total	436	294

Result

Final score

436 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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