Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

474.98 – 395.35

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 767.4 ±10.5

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 298.05Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 123.05Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 53.88Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 687.5 ±12.2

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 102.45Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 73.65Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 219.25Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 4607, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

475 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 7769, 4607, 5577

Auto

106.0 22%

Teleop

260.3 55%

Endgame

110.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3753, 8069, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3753, 8069, 111

Auto

53.4 13%

Teleop

217.7 55%

Endgame

125.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475pts

Blue projected score395.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.6
Score range: 320–550
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 842 vs event baseline 414.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

767.4Season APEX687.5

106Auto53.4

260.3Teleop217.7

110Endgame125

110Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	49
teleop	266	147
endgame	90	131
foul	0	40
total	475	367

Result

Final score

475 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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