Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

282.31 – 344.61

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.9 ±9.3

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 17.95Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 23.19Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 241.17Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.8 ±9.3

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 158.22Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 123.63Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 62.76Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 11214, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2635, 11214, 7415

Auto

85.5 32%

Teleop

132.8 49%

Endgame

53.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2054, 2556, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2054, 2556, 5181

Auto

64.4 19%

Teleop

190.3 55%

Endgame

91.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score282.3pts

Blue projected score344.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.3
Score range: 208–419
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 412.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.9Season APEX641.8

85.5Auto64.4

132.8Teleop190.3

53Endgame91.3

113Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	81
teleop	57	187
endgame	46	79
foul	0	0
total	138	347

Result

Final score

138 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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