Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.44 – 451.56

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585 ±10.7

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 63.23Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 65.66Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 98.55Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 721.4 ±11.7

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 77.36Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 189.85Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 184.35Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3544, 6665, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.4 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3544, 6665, 6201

Auto

28.8 15%

Teleop

92.7 49%

Endgame

69.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6429, 4020, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6429, 4020, 10980

Auto

88.4 20%

Teleop

251.0 56%

Endgame

111.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score227.4pts

Blue projected score451.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.1
Score range: 152–527
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 414.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585Season APEX721.4

28.8Auto88.4

92.7Teleop251

69.1Endgame111.5

90Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	79
teleop	112	200
endgame	61	47
foul	0	30
total	206	356

Result

Final score

206 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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