Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

261.77 – 317.41

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.2 ±10.4

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 50.4Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 57.2Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 154.17Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.1 ±9.3

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 130.94Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 176.06Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 10.41Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 6911, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4125, 6911, 7183

Auto

24.5 10%

Teleop

137.8 59%

Endgame

72.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 2582, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.4 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4766, 2582, 3082

Auto

45.5 16%

Teleop

183.6 64%

Endgame

58.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score261.8pts

Blue projected score317.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.6
Score range: 187–392
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 416.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.2Season APEX556.1

24.5Auto45.5

137.8Teleop183.6

72Endgame58.4

158Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	69
teleop	175	79
endgame	117	56
foul	0	5
total	319	209

Result

Final score

319 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 82.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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