Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.87 – 154.69

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 651.6 ±11.2

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 176.99Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 245.5Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 4.38Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585 ±10.5

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 77.73Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 5.6Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 71.36Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 1506, 11244

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.9 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1756, 1506, 11244

Auto

60.2 14%

Teleop

234.0 56%

Endgame

127.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6487, 11242, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6487, 11242, 4087

Auto

40.0 26%

Teleop

74.5 49%

Endgame

37.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score426.9pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 272.2
Score range: 80–502
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 417.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

651.6Season APEX585

60.2Auto40

234Teleop74.5

127.1Endgame37.6

82Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	69
teleop	204	101
endgame	85	55
foul	40	0
total	403	225

Result

Final score

403 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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