Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

509.94 – 212.45

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 898.9 ±14.5

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 228.99Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 99.93Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 181.02Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696 ±11.7

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 54.55Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 107.55Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 50.35Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 931, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

509.9 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2231, 931, 6528

Auto

124.1 24%

Teleop

287.7 56%

Endgame

101.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8069, 4655, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8069, 4655, 364

Auto

70.7 32%

Teleop

129.3 59%

Endgame

19.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score509.9pts

Blue projected score212.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 297.5
Score range: 137–585
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 836 vs event baseline 415.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

898.9Season APEX696

124.1Auto70.7

287.7Teleop129.3

101.8Endgame19

119Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	77
teleop	299	158
endgame	64	92
foul	20	0
total	509	327

Result

Final score

509 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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