Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.63 – 359.39

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

569 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 739.3 ±9.9

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 54.26Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 182.58Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 258.79Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.6 ±8.7

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 102.81Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 58.34Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 198.24Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1816, 3501, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.6 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1816, 3501, 2468

Auto

90.7 18%

Teleop

261.7 51%

Endgame

158.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1403, 1533, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1403, 1533, 449

Auto

57.7 16%

Teleop

196.6 56%

Endgame

95.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score495.6pts

Blue projected score359.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.2
Score range: 285–570
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 959 vs event baseline 412.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

739.3Season APEX717.6

90.7Auto57.7

261.7Teleop196.6

158.6Endgame95.7

187Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	85
teleop	374	192
endgame	86	108
foul	5	5
total	569	390

Result

Final score

569 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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