Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.13 – 332.34

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

525 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.8 ±9.5

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 116.09Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 241.41Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 57.63Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.3 ±9.8

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 87.48Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 177.74Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 67.12Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 9496, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.1 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5653, 9496, 6665

Auto

62.2 16%

Teleop

260.7 65%

Endgame

75.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4087, 2054, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4087, 2054, 4125

Auto

46.2 14%

Teleop

165.4 51%

Endgame

113.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score415.1pts

Blue projected score332.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.8
Score range: 258–489
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 763 vs event baseline 413.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.8Season APEX658.3

62.2Auto46.2

260.7Teleop165.4

75.9Endgame113.9

154Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	47
teleop	241	117
endgame	135	74
foul	60	0
total	525	238

Result

Final score

525 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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