Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

484.34 – 453.87

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

628 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 190.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 826.9 ±12.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 80.35Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 166.48Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 237.51Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.6 ±10.4

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 83.28Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 149.07Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 221.52Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 10980, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6201, 10980, 1690

Auto

91.8 19%

Teleop

306.0 63%

Endgame

88.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 2556, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5577, 2556, 1756

Auto

69.7 15%

Teleop

273.2 60%

Endgame

111.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score484.3pts

Blue projected score453.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 380–558
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 413.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

826.9Season APEX605.6

91.8Auto69.7

306Teleop273.2

88.2Endgame111

83Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	79
teleop	344	123
endgame	139	9
foul	0	5
total	628	216

Result

Final score

628 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 190.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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